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Fantasy Fodder: Draft trends following a weekend of dorkdom

by Matt Vensel | August 27, 2008 at 12:00 pm
Posted in NFL, b the paper, fantasy football, sports

From today’s b the paper…

I did two fantasy drafts over the weekend, and outside of some buffalo-chicken-dip-induced food poisoning Saturday night, I’m pleased with how my teams turned out. Here are some trends I noticed:

•••• Frank Gore is being undervalued. He was the 16th pick in one league, even though he’s poised for a big season.
•••• Conversely, Tom Brady is being overvalued. He was the first pick in that same draft. Ridiculous. He’ll have another good year, but don’t expect numbers like he put up in ’07.
•••• Wide receivers were all the rage in rounds two and three, proving that running-back-by-committees are hurting the value of many backs.
•••• Tony Gonzalez wasn’t a top-five TE in my leagues. Thanks guys, I appreciate it!
•••• People don’t realize Kevin Curtis is out for at least half the season.
•••• No love for the Indy “D.” At the very worst, they’ll be a great backup option.
•••• Jamal Lewis, Fred Taylor and Chester Taylor are also being undervalued.
•••• Sleeper WRs such as Jerry Porter, Donte Stallworth, Bryant Johnson and Robert Meachem have all been available after Round 10.
•••• My super-sleeper, Arizona’s Tim Hightower, is no longer a secret.
•••• Some people aren’t sold on Adrian Peterson (or maybe they’re just crazy). He went fourth in one league, behind Brady, L.T. and Brian Westbrook. What a steal!

He’s heating up: Atlanta QB Matt Ryan has looked good in the preseason, locking up the starting gig. Keep an eye on him if you need to pick up a backup off waivers.

He’s on fire: Carolina’s two-headed RB monster was unstoppable against the Redskins Saturday night. Deangelo Williams picked up 101 yards on nine carries, including a 60-yard TD run. Rookie Jonathan Stewart was not to be outdone, rushing for 100 yards on 10 carries, with a 50-yard TD scamper of his own. Both have significant fantasy value, but I suspect Stewart will be the go-to guy at the goal line. Get em’ while they’re hot.

Fantasy doghouse: I don’t know what was worse Saturday night: Rashard Mendenhall’s two fumbles or Matt Leinart’s three INTs. Both are on the decline.

Trainer’s table: Injuries to Maurice Jones-Drew (sprained ankle) and Chad Johnson (partially torn labrum in shoulder) shouldn’t keep you from taking them, but Osi Umenyiora’s ACL injury should make you think twice about selecting the Giants’ “D.”

This week’s reader question: dadcal52 on bthesite.com writes: “One of my league mates is offering QB Brett Farve and RB Micheal Turner for QB Trent Edwards and RB Marion Barber. I have QB Jason Campbell, RB Clinton Portis and RB Brian Westbrook. What would you do?”

My response: Swapping Edwards for Favre would be an upgrade at the QB position, but you’d have to give up Barber to get him. I think Barber and Turner will both have solid seasons, but there are concerns about how they’ll handle larger workloads. There’s no rush to make a trade right now. The season hasn’t even started yet! Let the first few weeks play out, re-evaluate your QBs, and if they’re struggling, then try to make a deal.

Extra point: Despite his four-game suspension to start the season, Cincinnati WR Chris Henry is worth a late draft pick if you’re looking for a potential steal. He’s a great receiver who could benefit from the Bengals’ hobbled receiving core, plus you don’t have to worry about him destroying the chemistry of your fantasy locker room — unless you’re the kind of person who makes a mid-season trade just to shake things up and let your fantasy players know they’re not untouchable. Not that I’ve ever done that before…

Matt Vensel is a content creator for b. His fantasy football column appears Wednesdays. E-mail your questions to matt@bthesite.com.


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3 responses.

  1. Adrian Peterson's yards per carry
    Before injury last year: 6+
    After injury: ~3.4
    This preseason: 2.1

    Everyone expecting a 2,000-yard, 20-TD season from him are going to be disappointed.

  2. Well the 3.4 yards per carry probably had more to do with teams putting 8 or 9 guys in the box than the injury, but it's worth noting. And the preseason, well it's the preseason! You're right, though, he won't come close to getting 2,000 yards and 20 TDs, but he's still a top-two pick in fantasy football.

    No one should pick him above L.T., though.

  3. Teams will still put 8-9 in the box against Minnesota this year. Sure, they got B. Berrian as a threat at WR, but they still have Tavaris Jackson throwing the ball. Until Jackson proves that he can make a defense pay for doing it, opponents are going to stack the box and make Peterson's life difficult.

    Plus, Peterson's last full season was 2004 ... his frosh year at Oklahoma.

    If I had the #2 pick, I'd take Westbrook. Just my opinion though, if AP blows up this year I'll give him his props.