As the undefeated Colts and Saints march closer to perfection, the debate rages whether the two juggernauts should rest their stars for the playoffs or chase after a flawless 19-0 record.

Screw all that. Coaches Jim Caldwell and Sean Payton have a more important thing to consider: the impact playing it safe will have on America’s fantasy squads. I mean, really, they need to get their priorities straight here.

In all seriousness, winning a Super Bowl should be the goal, and it’s up to the coaches to figure out how to make that happen. As for winning a fantasy title, this sort of thing goes with the territory — though usually not in Week 15.

Payton says the Saints will keep the pedal to the medal (good news for fantasy owners). Caldwell has indicated that the Colts’ healthy starters will play Thursday, but who knows for how long? Though their first playoff game is more than a month away, I wouldn’t rule anything out. If you’ve got good backups, don’t risk playing Colts studs. If not, you’re going to have to keep your fingers crossed. Read the rest of this entry »

Now that the fantasy playoffs are about to begin, owners will face extra pressure as they decide who to play in these must-win matchups. If you make one wrong move and lose because you benched a guy who had a big week, you’ll be kicking yourself until August.

That brings me to a big question you’ll have to ask yourself as you scrutinize your roster this week: Do you want to start boom-or-bust players or sure things?

Honestly, there’s probably no right answer here. It really depends on how good your squad is, your opponent’s matchups and your own personal preference.

I’ve always been a fan of filling out my final roster spots with consistent players such as Derrick Mason and Matt Forte, who are pretty much guaranteed to score X number of points each week. But if I’m a clear underdog and need a little help to advance to the next round, I’ll consider taking a chance on a potential home run such as Devery Henderson on Jonathan Stewart. I could end up looking like a genius, or it could blow up in my face. But sometimes, you have to take a chance.

Meanwhile, if your squad is stacked with studs, consider playing it safe.

Good luck choosing your own fantasy adventure. I hope you get it right. Read the rest of this entry »

Everybody loves pleasant surprises, especially when they happen in fantasy football. Every season, a handful of guys come out of nowhere to put up big numbers. Chances are if you have a couple, your team is already closing in on a playoff spot.

Now that we’re halfway through the fantasy regular season, it’s time to acknowledge those players. So here is my all-surprise team (sans a silly kicker) for the first half:

QB — Ben Roethlisberger, Steelers: Big Ben was viewed as strictly a backup and spot starter, but Pittsburgh went pass-happy and now Roethlisberger is a top-five fantasy quarterback.

RB — Cedric Benson, Bengals and Ray Rice, Ravens: Who thought back in August that Benson would be leading the NFL in rushing right now and that Rice would be among the league leaders in yards from scrimmage? Not many, but if you did, you’re in pretty good shape.

WR — Steve Smith, Giants; Miles Austin, Cowboys; and Sidney Rice, Vikings: Smith has been the season’s most stunning development, but these other two have been no slouches.

TE — Vernon Davis, 49ers: Finally living up to the hype, he’s first among tight ends in touchdowns.

D/ST — New Orleans: The Saints have a good D/ST? Now that came out of nowhere. Read the rest of this entry »

Obviously, when a team is averaging almost 40 points a game like the Saints are, they’ve got some serious weapons on offense.

After seven Saints found the end zone Sunday when the team put up 48 points against the Giants (who somehow still have the NFL’s top-ranked defense), these guys saw more action on the waiver wire than they would had they taken my ex-girlfriend for a couple of drinks. That’s saying something.

But which of the Saints skill players are worth playing on a regular basis?

Of course, you want studs Drew Brees, Pierre Thomas and Marques Colston in your lineup each week. However, after those guys, I don’t feel so comfortable playing any of the other Saints. Tight end Jeremy Shockey is too streaky. Reggie Bush is a total bust. And Lance Moore, Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem have taken turns being Brees’ second-favorite target (though I like Moore going forward). My advice: Don’t go nuts picking up Saints. There were plenty of balls to go around Sunday, but that usually won’t be the case. Read the rest of this entry »

Fantasy football is a crapshoot at times — take the breakout success of Cedric Benson and New-York-style Steve Smith for example — and we’ve seen that this year with a bunch of early-round picks stumbling out of the gate. But more often than not, slow-starting studs eventually get their act together. You just have to hope your squad is still in contention when it happens.

In the past couple of weeks, we’ve seen players such as Michael Turner, Roddy White, Larry Fitzgerald, Tony Romo and Matt Forte finally perform up to expectations. Now that they’ve found their groove, there’s no reason to expect it won’t continue.

But what about guys such as T.O., L.T., Brian Westbrook, DeAngelo Williams and the other Steve Smith? Will they get it together in time to save your season? Perhaps, but you can’t count on it. If you can get fair value (unlikely), trade them. If not, keep their butts planted to your bench and cross your fingers. That’s all you can do. Read the rest of this entry »

Your squad might be in first place, or it might be stuck in the cellar. Either way, there’s room for improvement, and there’s no better time than now. Championships are won by fleecing your fellow owners when they get desperate and give up on good players who get off to slow starts. Take advantage of their lack of patience and try to swing a deal for players like these:

[1] Matt Forte, RB, Bears: Forte (above left) has averaged just 2.5 yards per carry, a trend that isn’t likely to continue. Bonus: He’s had 11 catches the past two games.

[2] Roddy White, WR, Falcons: With Tony Gonzalez in the fold, White (above center) has just 119 receiving yards and one TD, but he’ll return to form soon enough.

[3] Brian Westbrook, RB, Eagles: Westbrook (above right) was out Sunday with an ankle injury, which also limited him in Philly’s first two games. He should return after the bye week, though, and get back to his point-scoring ways. Read the rest of this entry »

This offseason, the Patriots’ offense was hyped up more than swine flu — or, as I like to call it, the H1N1 mix tape. Tom Brady was back from an ACL injury and most of his weapons from the record-setting 2007 season were still at his disposal. Through two games, though, the Patriots have been far from explosive, scoring just 34 total points.

Those two weeks might have felt like an eternity if you were relying on Brady, Randy Moss and Wes Welker to net you big-time fantasy points. But you’ll have to be patient as Brady shakes off the rust after missing the 2008 season. Trust me — it will be worth the wait.

Brady won’t come close to matching his numbers from two seasons ago, but 30 touchdowns and 4,000 passing yards are still attainable. The Patriots’ schedule gets a lot easier after the Ravens visit in Week 4, meaning Brady and his two favorite targets will be very productive down the stretch — assuming Welker’s knee injury isn’t serious. Welker is key because he opens things up downfield for the all-important Brady-to-Moss connection. Read the rest of this entry »

After the Ravens’ crazy 38-24 win Sunday, I cautioned in Tuesday’s reality football column that we shouldn’t expect them to go all pass-happy on us this season. But it is fair to re-evaluate the fantasy value of the Ravens’ offensive playmakers.

Joe Flacco, who threw for a career-high 307 yards and three scores, showed that his development is on track in his second season in the league, but it isn’t time to consider him a consistent fantasy starter just yet. I like him as a backup who can be used on a bye week or when the Ravens have a favorable matchup.

Ray Rice, Willis McGahee and Le’Ron McClain each scored double-digit points, but it will be a guessing game each week determining who merits a starting spot.

I’m not sold on Mark Clayton (right) as a fantasy starter. Most of the pass-catching production will come from Derrick Mason and Todd Heap (left), who transformed from fantasy afterthought to waiver-wire gem with Sunday’s performance. Read the rest of this entry »

One of my readers texted in a good question last week, which is noteworthy considering that the folks who take the time to send me a text usually want to know how I’ve become so clueless when it comes to the Ravens or why I look constipated in my column mug shot.

I wish I was making that last one up, but hey, at least I got a good laugh out of it.

Anyway, here’s the curious texter’s query: “Who should I draft with the 3rd overall pick — MJD or Forte?” Like I said, that’s a good question, but I’m going to modify it slightly for the purposes of this column.

Adrian Peterson is clearly the top pick in fantasy football this year, but the pecking order directly behind “All Day” is a bit muddled. Maurice Jones-Drew, Matt Forte and Michael Turner all warrant consideration at No. 2 and should, in some order, be the second, third and fourth players to come off the board. But which of those three second-tier studs should you snag when your squad is on the clock? Keep reading to find out where each back should be drafted. Read the rest of this entry »

Be honest, when you hear the phrase “big busts,” you probably think of Scarlett Johansson and Lindsay Lohan — or if you’re one of my three female readers, Jonah Hill and Val Kilmer. When I hear it, my thoughts immediately drift to guys such as Ronnie Brown and Antonio Bryant.

OK, fine. Sometimes I think of Scarlett and Lindsay, too. And maybe Val Kilmer …

Let’s move on. Each year, I make a point to avoid a handful of players who will potentially leave me cursing at my laptop on Sunday afternoons. Occasionally, I cave and end up talking myself into drafting them anyway, only to regret it later. Here’s who I’m staying away from this year (and you should, too):

QB, Matt Cassel, Chiefs: Don’t let Cassel’s breakout 2008 campaign give you illusions of fantasy grandeur. Sure, the Chiefs want to chuck the football around, but Dwayne Bowe is not Randy Moss, and Amani Toomer is not Wes Welker. It’s going to take a year or two for Cassel to learn how to be the Man away from New England.

RB, Reggie Bush, Saints: Bush is injury-prone, can’t run between the tackles and will get few carries near the goal line. Plus his taste in women is questionable. So unless your league awards points for receptions or husky girlfriends, just don’t do it. Read the rest of this entry »